рефераты конспекты курсовые дипломные лекции шпоры

Реферат Курсовая Конспект

AN GEOPOL

AN GEOPOL - раздел Лингвистика, Социокультурные основы (фонда) жителя восточной Европы (english) An Geopol. Itics. More Systematically These Were Presented In Our Publ...

AN GEOPOL. itics.

More systematically these were presented in our publications 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 1. Socio-cultural processes of the space assimilation do have their own logic that unfolds for centuries. Geopolitical processes are just the individual manifestations of these fundamental socio-cultural phenomena. The geopolitical level does usually attract most attention and provoke the most sharp reaction that often leads to its incorrect interpretation.

The SCS theory allows for a more accurate description of the space assimilation processes. Geopolitics, as from the positions of the theory, become just one of its particular applications. We wont repeat here all ideas and principles of the SCS theory - just refer to the respective appendixes to this report APPENDIX 1. THE TERMIINITIONS APPEND2. TYPES OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL FORMATIONS SOCIO-CULTURAL TYPES IITIES APPEND3. PERIODS OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS EVOLUTION APPEND4. IODS OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS EVOLUTION The above presents the general concept of the SCS theory as well as principal facts of the socio-cultural evolution and dynamics. 2. Weve performed comparative analysis of the European and Asia Minor external buffer zones evolution. The result of the analysis - atlas of the computer generated space-time models kartoids that reflects the logic of this space evolution.

Geopolitical problems of the region and its conflicts appear as particular consequences of the general evolution.

Suggested system of the computer generated space-time models creates a principally new foundation for further geopolitical processes forecasting prognosis. The atlas serves as a foundation for forecasting geopolitical processes in the entire European external buffer zone. It also reflects and correctly explains the processes in the Balkans, the essence and state of the current crisis there.

We insist that these processes dont possess chaotic geopolitical character, but are consequences of the regular evolution of the region. Some results of such analysis are presented in the papers of my colleague - Tatiana Nikolaenko. Here is just the periodization for all the European external buffer zones socio-cultural regions and Asia Minor. Asia Minor as external buffer zone. General description Subperiod N 1. As from ancient times up to VIII century BC. Subperiod N 2. From VIII century BC until 327 BC. Subperiod N 3. From 327 until 180-s BC. Subperiod N 4. From 180-s BC until 110 AD. Subperiod N 5. From 110 until 380 AD. Subperiod N 6. From 380 until 610. Subperiod N 7. From 610 until 870-s. Subperiod N 8. From 870-s until early XI century.

Subperiod N 9. I century until late XIII century.

Subperiod N 10. From second half of the XIII century until 1453. Subperiod N 11. From 1453 until 1680-s. Subperiod N 12. From 1680-s until 1770-s. Subperiod N 13. From 1770-s until 1856. Subperiod N 14. From 1856 until 1908. Subperiod N 15. From 1908 until 1980-s. Subperiod N 16. From late 1980-s and for some future.

Subperiod N 17. Prognosis more distant future European external buffer zone. General analysis Subperiod 1. As from ancient times up until 113 BC Subperiod 2. From 113 BC until 110 AD Subperiod 3. From 110 until 380 Subperiod 4. From 380-s until mid VI century Subperiod 5. I century until mid VIII century Subperiod 6. From mid VIII century until late X century Subperiod 7. From late X century until 1241 Subperiod 8. From 1241 until 1380 Subperiod 9. From 1380 until 1570-s Subperiod 10. From 1570-s until 1700 Subperiod 11. From 1700 until 1772 Subperiod 12. From 1772 until 1831 Subperiod 13. From 1832 until 1870 Subperiod 14. From 1871 until 1917 Subperiod 15. From 1917 until 1945 Subperiod 16. From 1945 until late 1980-s Subperiod 17. From late 1980-s and for some future Cycle 5. Subperiods 18 - 19 - 20. Prognosis Finnish region Stage 1-1. As from ancient times up until early IX century Stage 1-2. From early IX century until early XIII century Stage 2-1. From early XIII century until late XVI century Stage 2-2. From late XVI century until late XVII century Stage 2-3. From late XVII century until 1721 Subperiod N 3. From 1721 until early XIX century Subperiod N 4. From early XIX century until 1917 Stage 5-1. From 1917 until 1920 Stage 5-2. From 1920 until 1939 Stage 5-3. From 1939 until 1945 Stage 5-4. From 1945 until 1991 Subperiod N 6. From 1991 and for some future Norwegian - Swedish - Danish region Subperiod N 1. As from ancient times up until late VIII century AD Subperiod N 2. From late VIII century until early XI century Subperiod N 3. From early XI century until early - mid XIII century Subperiod N 4. From early - mid XIII century until 1471 Subperiod N 5. From 1471 until late XVII century Subperiod N 6. From late XVII century until early XIX century Subperiod N 7. From early XIX century until early XX century Stage 8-1. From early XX century until 1920 Stage 8-2. From 1920 until 1939 Stage 8-3. From 1939 until 1945 Stage 8-4. From 1945 until 1991 Subperiod N 9. From late XX century and for some future Latvian - Estonian region Stage 1-1. As from ancient times up until early VIII century AD Stage 1-2. From early VIII century until early XIII century Stage 2-1. From early XIII century until 1370 Stage 2-2. From 1370 until 1570-s Stage 3-1. From 1570-s until 1580-s Stage 3-2. From 1580-s until 1700 Stage 3-3. From 1700 until 1721 Subperiod N 4. From 1721 until 1914 Stage 5-1. From 1914 until 1920 Stage 5-2. From 1920 until 1939 Stage 5-3. From 1939 until 1945 Stage 5-4. From 1945 until 1991 Subperiod N 6. From 1991 and for some future Lithuanian region Stage 1-1. As from ancient times up until early VIII century AD Stage 1-2. From early VIII century until early XI century Stage 1-3. From early XI century until mid XIII century Subperiod N 2. From mid XIII century until 1386 Subperiod N 3. From 1386 until 1462 Stage 4-1. From 1462 until 1569 Stage 4-2. From 1569 until 1650-s Stage 4-3. From 1650-s until 1795 Stage 5-1. From 1795 until 1831 Stage 5-2. From 1831 until 1861 Stage 5-3. From 1861 until 1914 Stage 5-4. From 1914 until 1920 Stage 6-1. From 1920 until 1939 Stage 6-2. From 1939 until 1945 Stage 6-3. From 1945 until 1991 Stage 7-1. From 1991 and for some future Polish region Subperiod N 1. As from ancient times up until VIII century AD Subperiod N 2. From VIII century until 966 Subperiod N 3. From 966 until 1241 Subperiod N 4. From 1241 until 1386 Subperiod N 5. From 1386 until 1570-s Subperiod N 6. From 1570-s until 1667 Subperiod N 7. From 1667 until 1772 Subperiod N 8. From 1772 until 1831 Subperiod N 9. From 1831 until 1918 Stage 9-1. From 1831 until 1861 Stage 9-2. From 1861 until 1914 Stage 9-3. From 1914 until 1918 Subperiod N 10. From 1918 until 1980-s Stage 10-1. From 1918 until 1921 Stage 10-2. From 1921 until 1939 Stage 10-3. From 1939 until 1945 Stage 10-4. From 1945 until 1980-s Subperiod N 11. From 1980-s and for some future Czech-Slovakian region Subperiod N 1. As from ancient times up until VIII century AD Subperiod N 2. From VIII century until late X century Subperiod N 3. From late X century until 1241 Subperiod N 4. From 1241 until 1380-s Subperiod N 5. From 1380-s until 1485 Subperiod N 6. From 1485 until 1648 Subperiod N 7. From 1648 until 1848 Subperiod N 8. From 1848 until 1914 Stage 9-1. From 1914 until 1919 Stage 9-2. From 1919 until 1938 Stage 9-3. From 1938 until 1945 Stage 9-4. From 1945 until 1968 Stage 9-5. From 1968 until 1980-s Subperiod N 10. From 1980-s and for some future Hungarian region Stage 1-1. As from ancient times up until mid VI century AD Stage 1-2. From mid VI century until late VIII century Subperiod N 2. From late VIII century until early XI century Subperiod N 3. From early XI century until 1241 Subperiod N 4. From 1241 until 1380-s Subperiod N 5. From 1380-s until 1541 Subperiod N 6. From 1541 until late XVII century Subperiod N 7. From late XVII century until late XVIII century Subperiod N 8. From late XVIII century until 1830 Subperiod N 9. From 1830 until 1917 Stage 9-2. From 1848 until 1867 Stage 9-3. From 1867 until 1914 Stage 9-4. From 1914 until 1918 Subperiod N 10. From 1918 until late 1980-s Stage 10-1. From 1918 until 1920 Stage 10-2. From 1920 until 1939 Stage 10-3. From 1939 until 1945 Stage 10-4. From 1945 until 1980-s Subperiod N 11. From late 1980-s and for some future Romanian - Bulgarian - Moldavian region Subperiod N 1. As from ancient times up until AD Subperiod N 2. AD until 370-s Subperiod N 3. From 370-s until late VII century Subperiod N 4. From late VII century until late X century Subperiod N 5. From late X century until late XIV century Subperiod N 6. From late XIV century until 1480-s Subperiod N 7. From 1480-s until 1774 Subperiod N 8. From mid 1770-s until 1878 Subperiod N 9. From 1878 until early XX century Stage 10-1. From 1908 until 1914 Stage 10-2. From 1914 until 1918 Stage 10-3. From 1918 until 1940 Stage 10-4. From 1940 until 1945 Stage 10-5. From 1945 until late 1980-s Subperiod N 11. From late 1980-s and for some future Balkan region Subperiod N 1. As from ancient times up until mid II century BC Subperiod N 2. From II century BC until 370-s AD Subperiod N 3. From 370-s until early IX century Subperiod N 4. From early IX century until late XII century Subperiod N 5. From late XII century until late XIV century Subperiod N 6. From late XIV century until late XVII century Subperiod N 7. From late XVII century until 1870-s Subperiod N 8. From 1870-s until early XX century Stage 9-1. From 1908 until 1913 Stage 9-2. From 1914 until 1918 Stage 9-3. From 1918 until 1939 Stage 9-4. From 1939 until 1945 Stage 9-5. From 1945 until 1980-s Subperiod N 10. From late 1980-s and for some future 3. One of the most essential points here is existence of clear correlation in evolution of the European external buffer zone and Asia Minor as external buffer zone. No detailed description of all these correlations here - only combined general tables.

CHRONOLOGY OF EVOLUTION EUROPEAN EXTERNAL BUFFER ZONE Cycle Subperiod DatesDuration of a subperiod yearsAverage duration of subperiods within a cycle yearsDuration of a cycle yearsCycle 11 1.1From ancient times until 113 BCIndefiniteAround 218 years without 1st subperiod As far as its known, around 650 years2 1.2From 113 BC until 110 AD2233 1.3From 110 until 380-s2704 1.4From 380-s until mid VI centuryAround 160 Cycle 25 2.1From mid VI century until mid VIII century200Around 207 yearsAround 830 years6 2.2From mid VIII century until late X century2307 2.3From late X century until 1241 2608 2.4From 1241 until 1380 139 Cycle 39 3.1From 1380 until 1570-s190Around 113 yearsAround 450 years10 3.2From 1570-s until 1700 13011 3.3From 1700 until 1772 7212 3.4From 1772 until 1831 59Cycle 413 4.1From 1832 until 1870 38Around 39 years Around 156 years14 4.2From 1871 until 19174615 4.3From 1917 until 1945 2816 4.4From 1945 until late 1980-s44Cycle 517 5.1Is still going on currently -Current cycle Current cycle 18 19 20 Prognosis - Described duration of the buffer zone evolution - around 2100 years CHRONOLOGY OF EVOLUTION ASIA MINOR AS EXTERNAL BUFFER ZONE Cycle Subperiod DatesDuration of a subperiod yearsAverage duration of subperiods within a cycle yearsDuration of a cycle yearsCycle 11 1.1From ancient times until VIII century BCIndefinite Around 303 years without 1st subperiod As far as its known, around 910 year2 1.2From VIII century BC until 327 BC4733 1.3From 327 until 180 BC 1474 1.4From 180 BC until 110 AD 290 Cycle 25 2.1From 110 AD until 380 270Around 228 years Around 910 years 6 2.2From 380 until 610 2307 2.3From 610 until 870-s 2608 2.4From 870-s until early XI century Around 150 Cycle 39 3.1From early XI century until late XIII century 260Around 187 years Around 750 years 10 3.2From late XIII century until 1453 Around 17011 3.3From 1453 until 1680-s22712 3.4From 1680-s until 1770-sAround 90 Cycle 413 4.1From 1770-s until 1856 86Current cycle.

As per three completed subperiods - 70 years Current cycle. As per three completed subperiods - around 210 years14 4.2From 1856 until 1908 5215 4.3From 1908 until 1980-s7216 4.4From 1980-s and for some future - is still going on currently-Cycle 517 5.1 18 5.2 19 5.3 20 5.4Prognosis- Described duration of the buffer zone evolution - around 2800 years 4. Socio-cultural methodology is completely applicable to the analysis of the Russian Empire - USSR - CIS or Russian SCS, according to our terminology space evolution. We suggest our own version of the socio-cultural zonation of the Russian SCSs space by the late XX century, there are 20 twenty socio-cultural regions and 8 eight enclaves.

Below is the periodization of the Russian SCSs socio-cultural regions Russian enclaves periodization is given in the Tatiana Nikolaenko papers for definitions see Appendix 1. SOCIO- CULTURAL EVOLUTION OF THE REGIONS WITHIN RUSSIAN SCS SUBPERIODS I. Central Russian region Number of cycles - 1 Number of subperiods - 10 1. From ancient times up until VIII century AD 2. From VIII century until mid XI century 3. From mid XI until early XIII century 4. From early XIII century until 1380-s 5. From 1380-s until 1470-s 6. From 1470-s until 1572 7. From 1572 to 1690-s 8. From 1690-s to 1917 9. From 1917 to 1991 10. From 1991 and for some future II. Pskov - Novgorod - Petersburg region Number of cycles - 1 Number of subperiods - 10 1. From ancient times up until VIII century AD 2. From VIII until mid XI century 3. From mid XI until early XIII century 4. From early XIII and until late XIII century 5. From late XIII century until 1471 6. From 1471 to 1572 7. From 1572 to 1700-s 8. From early XVIII century until 1917 9. From 1917 to 1991 10. From 1991 and for some future III. Northern European region Number of cycles - 1 Number of subperiods - 7 1.1. From ancient times up until VIII century AD 1.2. From VIII until mid XI century 2. From mid XI until 1470 3. From 1470 to 1572 4. From 1572 until early XVIII century 5. From early XVIII until early XX century 6. From early XX and until late XX century 7. From late XX century and for some future IV. Smolensk - Bryansk - Chernigov - Sumy region southern part of this socio-cultural region belongs at present to Ukrainian state Number of cycles - 1 Number of subperiods - 11 1. From ancient times up until VIII century AD 2. From VIII until mid XI century 3. From mid XI until early XIII century 4. From early XIII until mid XIV century 5. From mid XIV century until 1514 6. From 1514 until early XVII century 7. From early XVII century until 1667 8. From 1667 to 1772 9. From 1772 to 1917 10. From 1917 to 1991 11. From 1991 and for some future V. Central Ukrainian region Number of cycles - 1 Number of subperiods - 9 1. From ancient times up until IX century AD 2. From IX until mid XI century 3. From mid XI century until 1160-s 4. From 1160-s to 1380 5. From 1380 to 1667 6. From 1667 to 1770 7. From 1770 to 1917 8. From 1917 to 1991 9. From 1991 and for some future VI. Southern Russian region south-western part of this socio-cultural region belongs at present to Ukrainian state Number of cycles - 2 Number of subperiods - 1st cycle - 13 subperiods of socio-cultural evolution within the Barbarian-Nomadic SCS 2nd cycle - 4 subperiods 1. From early - mid XVI century until 1700 2. From 1700 to 1917 3. From 1917 to 1991 4. From 1991 and for some future VII. Eastern Ukrainian region the most eastern part of this socio-cultural region belongs at present to the Russian Federation Number of cycles - 2 Number of subperiods - 1st cycle - 13 subperiods of socio-cultural evolution within the Barbarian-Nomadic SCS 2nd cycle - 5 subperiods 1. From mid XVI until XVII century 2. From late XVII century until 1870-s 3. From 1870-s to 1917 4. From 1917 to 1991 5. From 1991 and for some future VIII. Southern Ukrainian region Number of cycles - 2 Number of subperiods - 1st cycle - 14 subperiods of socio-cultural evolution within the Barbarian-Nomadic SCS as from 15 century its a part of the Crimean Khanate 2nd cycle - 4 subperiods 1. From early XVIII century until 1791 2. From 1791 to 1917 3. From 1917 to 1991 4. From 1991 and for some future IX. Western Ukrainian region Number of cycles - 1 Number of subperiods - 12 1. From ancient times up until 9 century AD 2. From IX until mid XI century 3. From mid XI century until 1160-s 4. From 1160-s to 1380 5. From 1380 to 1660 6. From 1660 to 1770 7. From 1770 to 1815 8. From 1815 to 1860 9. From 1860 to 1918 10. From 1918 to 1945 11. From 1945 to 1991 12. From 1991 and for some future X. White-Russian Belarus region Number of cycles - 1 Number of subperiods - 9 1. From ancient times up until mid IX century AD 2. From mid IX until mid XI century 3. From mid XI until early XIV century 4. From early XIV century until 1650-s 5. From 1650-s to 1772 6. From 1772 to 1795 7. From 1795 to 1920 8. From 1920 to 1991 9. From 1991 and for some future XI. Urals region Number of cycles - 2 Number of subperiods - 1st cycle - 2 subperiods 1. From ancient times up until XII - XIII centuries 2. From XII - XIII centuries until 1480-s 2nd cycle - 6 subperiods 1. From 1480-s to 1572 2. From 1572 to 1700 3. From 1700 to 1870-s 4. From 1870-s to 1917 5. From 1917 to 1991 6. From 1991 and for some future XII. Trans-Volga region Number of cycles - 2 Number of subperiods - 1st cycle - 13 subperiods of socio-cultural evolution within the Barbarian-Nomadic SCS 2nd cycle - 4 subperiods 1. From mid XVI century until 1700 2. From 1700 to 1917 3. From 1917 to 1991 4. From 1991 and for some future XIII. Northern Asian region Number of cycles - 2 Number of subperiods - 1st cycle - 13 periods From ancient times up until late XV century. 2nd cycle - 4 subperiods 1. Stage 1.1. From late XV until late XVI century Stage 1.2. From late XVI 1570-s until early 18 century 2. From early XVIII until early XX century 3. From early XX and up until late XX century 4. From late XX century and for some future XIV. Southern-Siberian - Far-Eastern region Number of cycles - 2 Number of subperiods - 1st cycle - 13 subperiods of socio-cultural evolution within the Barbarian-Nomadic SCS 2nd cycle - 4 subperiods 1. Stage 1.1. From late XVI until late XVII century Stage 1.2. From late XVII until mid XIX century 2. From mid XIX century until 1917 3. From 1917 to 1991 4. From 1991 and for some future XV. Northern-Kazakh region Number of cycles - 2 Number of subperiods - 1st cycle - 14 subperiods of socio-cultural evolution within the Barbarian-Nomadic SCS 2nd cycle - 4 subperiods 1. From late XVIII until mid XIX century 2. From mid XIX century until 1917 3. From 1917 to 1991 4. From 1991 and for some future XVI-1. Kazakh -Central Asian region - Southern zone Number of cycles - 2 Number of subperiods - 1st cycle - 6 subperiods 1. From ancient times up until VI century BC 2. From VI century BC until VIII century AD 3. From VIII until early XIII century 4. From early XIII until early XV century 5. From early XV until early XVII century 6. From early XVII until mid XIX century 2nd cycle - 3 subperiods 7. From mid XIX century until 1917 8. From 1917 to 1991 9. From 1991 and for some future XVI-2. Kazakh -Central Asian region - Northern zone Number of cycles - 2 Number of subperiods - 1st cycle - 4 subperiods 1. From ancient times up until VIII century AD 2. From VIII until early XIII century 3. From early XIII until early XV century 4. From early XV until early XVII century 2nd cycle - 4 subperiods 5. From early XVII until mid XIX century 6. From mid XIX century until 1917 7. From 1917 to 1991 8. From 1991 and for some future XVII. Caucasian region Number of cycles - 3 Number of subperiods - 1st cycle - 2 subperiods Structure with three types of subregions was being formed, with Internal Caucasus as the first subregion, coastal areas as the second subregion where Greek, Roman and Byzantine enclaves have been generated, and Trans-Caucasus as the third subregion. 1. From ancient times until VIII - VII centuries BC 2. From VIII - VII centuries BC until XVI century AD 2nd cycle - 1 subperiod The entire territory controlled by the Ottoman Empire. 1. From XVI until early XIX century 3rd cycle - 4 subperiods 1. From early XIX century until 1859 2. From 1859 to 1917 3. From 1917 to 1989 4. From 1989 and for some future XVIII. Northern-Caucasian region Number of cycles - 2 Number of subperiods - 1st cycle - 13 subperiods of socio-cultural evolution within the Barbarian-Nomadic SCS From ancient times until mid XVI century 2nd cycle - 4 subperiods 1. From mid XVI until late XVIII century 2. From late XVIII century until 1917 3. From 1917 to 1991 4. From 1991 and for some future XIX. Moldavian region Number of subperiods - 11 1. From ancient times until AD 2. From AD until 370-s 3. From 370-s until late VII century 4. From late VII until late X century 5. From late X until late XIV century 6. From late XIV century until 1480-s 7. From 1480-s until 1774 8. From 1774 to 1856 9. From 1856 until early XX century 10. From 1908 until late 1980-s 11. From late 1980-s and for some future XX-1. Baltic region - Lithuanian zone Number of cycles 2. Number of subperiods - 1st cycle - 4 subperiods 1. Stage 1. From ancient times until early VIII century AD 1. Stage 2. From VIII until early XI century 1. Stage 3. From early XI until mid XIII century 2. From mid XIII century until 1386 3. From 1386 to 1462 4. Stage 1. From 1462 to 1569 4. Stage 2. From 1569 to 1650-s 4. Stage 3. From 1650-s until 1795 2nd cycle - 3 subperiods 1. From 1795 to 1920 2. From 1920 to 1991 3. From 1991 and for some future XX-2. Baltic region - Latvian-Estonian zone Number of cycles 2. Number of subperiods - 1st cycle - 3 subperiods 1. Stage 1. From ancient times up until early VIII century AD 1. Stage 2. From VIII until early XIII century 2. Stage 1. From early XIII century until 1370-s 2. Stage 2. From 1370-s until 1550-s 3. Stage 1. From 1550-s until 1580-s 3. Stage 2. From 1580-s until 1700 3. Stage 3. From 1700 to 1721 2nd cycle - 3 subperiods 1. From 1721 to 1917 2. From 1914 to 1991 3. From 1991 and for some future The above data are exceptionally important for correct interpretation of the spatial processes within Russian Empire - USSR - CIS. Life term of the particular socio-cultural region far exceeds the specific forms of the state organization within this space.

Processes of space assimilation indeed have their own rules and logic, and these directly relate to the current events within the CIS space.

For instance, to understand correctly present situation in Ukraine, it is especially important to take into account the fact that of its six socio-cultural regions only three are completely within the borders of the modern Ukrainian state Central Ukrainian, Western Ukrainian and Southern Ukrainian regions.

Territories of the three others extend over the state borders and - to a greater or smaller degree - are located within the Russian Federation space Southern Russian, Eastern Ukrainian and Smolensk -Bryansk -Chernigov -Sumy regions.

Thus, modern political boundaries of Ukraine do not completely correspond with the boundaries of the socio-cultural regions within its territory.

Its possible to talk for as long as one wishes about Ukraines political independence, but it makes sense to take into consideration the fact that the socio-cultural regions within its formal territory, for centuries were being integrated into the common space of the Russian SCS. 5. We present below the typology of the boundaries within Russian SCS space as well as their brief description, where accent is made on the problems of Ukraine and its Crimean region in particular.

In general, we identify 11 eleven types of the state political boundaries within the Russian Empire - USSR - CIS space 1. They are First type external boundary between Russian Empire - USSR - CIS and states representing alien socio-cultural formations.

Second type boundary between Russian enclaves and their environment neighbors.

Example boundary between Kaliningrad Region as Russian enclave and Lithuania.

We have the same type of boundary in the Crimean case Southern Ukrainian socio-cultural region does essentially differ from Crimea as Russian socio-cultural enclave.

In case of Crimea, even nature itself assists forming such type of a boundary take Sivash lagoon that separates Crimea from the rest of Ukraine.

Notably, Sivash is a relatively young natural formation, but it quite furthers such a separation.

What is even more remarkable is that within the boundary zone of the Crimean enclave and Ukraine, in a strict accordance with the dominant Russian standards of the territories assimilation, local ecological crisis is being generated intensive growth of a chemical industry enterprises in the area and most recent experiments with the Sivash open economic zone should lead, in a historically brief time, to a degradation of the areas natural environment.

The area should become highly unattractive for both living there and businesses any sort of economic activity.

Phenomena of such kind are being correctly described and explained in terms of the SCS theory.

Third type boundary between Russian homeland and internal buffer zones.

Example boundary between Pskov region and Estonia.

Another example gives Ukraine.

Fourth type boundary between the states of the Russian homeland itself it bears internal character and runs along the relic external buffer zone. Such is, for instance, the boundary between Belarus White Russia and Russian Federation in their present borders.

Such boundary, as a rule, separates divides the regions that are homogeneous in socio-cultural respect, and divides them in such way that they become belonging to politically different states within Russian socio-cultural system.

Fifth type indefinite in a socio-cultural respect, boundary of internal character in the areas of historically young pioneer colonization.

Example Eastern Ukraine in the neighborhood of Russian Federation, with characteristic absence of definite boundary lines in the space organization.

Sixth type not well-grounded, quite undefined and never before existed boundaries between states of Russian SCS that have been originated only recently. Example boundaries between the states of Middle Central Asia - former Soviet Republics.

This type is only characteristic for internal boundaries within Russian SCS space.

All external boundaries - with alien socio-cultural formations and SCS-s in particular - are still extremely stable and well-defined.

Seventh type relatively clear boundary, with greater or lesser numbers of disputable and sometimes disputed sections, each of those may become a reason and basis for respective regional conflict and essential revision of the entire boundary line. Example the boundary between Belarus White Russia and Lithuania.

Eighth type recently formed boundary between the CIS state and enclave within its territory.

Example the boundary between Moldova and Transnistrian Republic PMR. Ninth type internal boundaries between territorial-administrative units within Russian Federation.

This type also includes boundaries of the autonomous republics.

Tenth type boundary that doesnt bear the status of a state one, but separates internal buffer zone from the Russian homeland.

It has clearly defined character only in a Western part of the Russian Empire - USSR - CIS space.

Eleventh type stable and well-defined boundaries between naturally dependent vassals within borders of the internal buffer zone of Russian SCS. These boundaries may be quite stable, because they never play significant role in themselves.

Example boundaries between the Baltic states.

Specific of the modern Ukrainian state lies in the combination of the heterogeneous structure of its territory and heterogeneity of its political borders.

State boundary of Ukraine is represented by 7 seven different types of borders with each one possessing own specific qualities and dynamics of changes.

Here we have the following types of the state political boundaries First, Second, Third, Fourth, Fifth, Eighth, and Tenth. Generally speaking, seven of the existing within Russian SCS types of state political boundaries are being represented in modern Ukraine.

Thats simply too much for a single state No other post- Soviet state has to deal with such a situation.

Once more, each type of a state political boundaries is characterized by specific evolution.

Heterogeneity of a state political boundaries - and especially in a combination with the heterogeneous space structure - guarantees Ukrainian state all sorts of instability for an observable future.

As a form of organization of a social and political life, state usually has essentially shorter life term compare to that of socio-cultural boundaries and regions not to mention a socio-cultural formations.

And in such conditions reforms and economic reforms in particular become practically impossible any successive measures would lead only to a number of unforeseen and hardly remediable consequences.

Each type of the Ukrainian state boundaries may react to a radical reform changes in its own way. 6. Socio-cultural regions and boundaries between them are very dynamic, but their dynamics may be quite strictly described theoretically.

Here are some results of our 1998 researches in this regard.

THEORETICAL EVOLUTIONARY MODEL OF SPACE SOCIO-CULTURAL ASSIMILATION GEOPOLITICAL PROCESSES WITHIN RUSSIAN SCS Having analysed the evolution of the socio-cultural systems, weve discovered that, when it comes to forming their own spaces, they do display some common qualities. These qualities are being reflected in the model that demonstrates a series of logically succeeding one another stages of the SCSs space self-organization.

The model is presented in the APPENDIX 5 GENERAL MODEL OF THE PROCESS OF SPACE ASSIMILATION WITHIN SCS all graphics are designed in Word 7.0 for Windows 95. This theoretical model fully applies to the Russian SCS analysis.

The latters present-day condition, as from our point of view, may be interpreted as a beginning of the fifth stage.

At this point, situation develops, for the most part, in a direction of increasing the state heterogeneity diversity on the SCSs periphery.

And thus, the transition from one unitary state to a bigger number of states is quite natural.

Its significant that all new states are located on the SCSs periphery.

Some of these peripheral states may be extremely unstable, and during a brief historical perspective within fifth and sixth stages of the SCSs space evolution can easily disintegrate into even greater numbers of a smaller states.

In a chronological sense, it may take from around ten years to a good few decades.

Principal differences of this stage also lie in a growing quantity of enclaves.

Before, there were not so many of them, but at the fifth stage the number of enclaves increases drastically. In the specific conditions of Russian SCS, its also being expressed in a considerably grown importance of enclaves.

Within boundaries of the unitary state of the past, they have just been forming.

During the fifth and sixth stages, all enclaves should reveal their full potential. The other novelty of the present stage is the rise of the demarcating socio-cultural formations that separate states of the Russian SCSs internal buffer zone. Outwardly, they look as a territories that are not really considerable in width, but quite extended in length.

Their configuration is completely determined by the necessity to separate some two or more states of the internal buffer zone. And in this connection, their shape may be of any character. Transnistrian Republic would be an appropriate example here. It is indeed formation of the new type. Such spatial units do appear only at this, fifth stage when they play the most important role for further evolution of the buffer zone and its transformation in accordance with the dominating SCSs standards.

Thus, these creations shouldnt be considered as a sort of the Natures misunderstanding. As a rule, state formations of an enclave type as well as demarcating socio-cultural formations may be very weak and equivocal in all respects they are to an extreme degree complicated to contact. These territories also distinguish themselves with a great instability. They may possess whatever entangled international and inter-socio-cultural statuses and connections, and flirt freely with any states and territories in the World. But in reality, they are firmly tied only to the SCS that had actually caused these formations to exist.

Successfully established connection of some enclave with a foreign state formation a part of an alien SCS can be destroyed very fast and efficiently by the dominating maternal SCS. Within the following, sixth stage according to the theory utmost spatial diversity will find place within SCS - with maximum numbers of enclaves and demarcating socio-cultural formations, highly complicated political situation, numerous weak and frequently mutating states that may maintain extravagantly intricate internal relationships and often even imitate leaving their own SCS. At this stage, feeling of the SCSs total breakdown arises, but its more of a deceptive illusion socio-cultural system simply cannot change itself, and especially perish, due to the reasons of just geopolitical character.

Socio-cultural and geopolitical levels are different, and their connection is quite relative.

Beyond the question, geopolitical processes just follow in fundamental socio-cultural trends, and whatever happens at the political and geopolitical levels, evolutionary process of the SCSs space socio-cultural assimilation is in progress as usual. Lets note once more that, from our point of view, in the late XX century, painful in a geopolitical sense fifth and sixth stages take place within Russian SCS. But these stages are natural and logically integrated into general process of the entire Russian SCSs evolution. 7. DYNAMICS OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL REGIONS ENCLAVES WITHIN THE RUSSIAN SCSs SPACE Based on the above theses and researches we referred to earlier, the following general conclusions as to dynamics of regions and enclaves within Russian SCS can be made First As for socio-cultural regions and enclaves, highly changeable situation takes place within the Russian SCSs space.

Russian socio-cultural space - depending on the period of the Russian SCSs evolution - possesses strictly determinate set of regions and enclaves. Direct correspondence between the period of the Russian SCSs evolution and the existing set of as well as current processes in regions and enclaves within its space should be noted own specific set of socio-cultural regions and enclaves corresponds to each and every period of the socio-cultural evolution.

External restrictions to the extensive growth of the regions and enclaves number in any SCS are determined by the fact of reaching the spaces of alien SCS-s control.

In Russian SCS, this was achieved by the late XIX century. Second Regular, natural socio-cultural evolution of the Russian SCSs space self-organization takes place. It is not linked directly to the geopolitical conditions of Russian state-s. Within Russian SCS, forms of state-s may change drastically.

At one stage, a huge powerful unitary state may exist then it may disintegrate into a great number of smaller and weaker states then again, it may unite all these into one strong unitary state - and so on, and on, and on. There may be not much logical connection between the Russian states transformations of that kind. In any case, it the logic of transformation doesnt come to light if only state formations evolution is being analysed.

The states bankruptcy say, due to its wrong policy or ideology may be seen as an apparent cause, but thats just the geopolitical level. However, the natural logic is present in socio-cultural organization of the SCSs space and in the way the combination of regions and enclaves joint space is being formed. Their transformations do usually develop in two directions Where the first one is incorporation of the new socio-cultural regions and enclaves into the Russian SCSs space. New socio-cultural regions and enclaves are being included into Russian states space control as a rule at the time of its transition to the next period of a socio-cultural evolution.

The limitations here are the alien SCS-s spaces only And the second one being the reformation of the already existing within Russian SCS regions and enclaves character. These may essentially modify both their character and socio-cultural functions. This aspect is determined only by the internal logic of the Russian SCSs evolution.

Third Changes within Russian SCS in practice do not necessarily involve spatial fluctuations of the socio-cultural regions boundaries. As far as the opinion could be formed at the modern level of knowledge, it is characteristic of all the types of boundaries within Russian SCS. Lets remind that there are eleven types of the boundaries within Russian socio-cultural space, and all of them are being exuded just empirically. Configuration of the Russian SCSs regions and enclaves boundaries turned out to be quite static.

It changes very slowly and insignificantly, and the transformations that really happen are rather exceptions - not a rule. The main direction of the boundaries evolution within Russian SCS is determined by dramatic changes of the boundaries socio-cultural nature, or character, without modification of their exterior configuration. They retain certain configuration and, separating one and the same region from its socio-cultural environment neighbours, a boundary may drastically change its own character and type. Thats the essence of the boundaries dynamics - not just their fluctuations all round the territory.

Modification of the regions boundary type is well co-ordinated with the socio-cultural transformations of the region itself. This consideration concerns only socio-cultural boundaries its their configuration that is fairly static. Having been formed once, these boundaries do change to a very insignificant extent.

They become a foundation for initial development of a certain socio-cultural region or enclave then this region or enclave develops and transforms in accordance with the general logic of the Russian SCSs evolution. Fourth There is no direct connection between geopolitical and socio-cultural processes within Russian SCS. Obvious dominants in Russian SCS - as in any other - are socio-cultural processes. Thats they determine states forms the number and character of states within SCS, configuration of their boundaries, etc Static condition isnt characteristic of a state political boundaries these may fluctuate in space very considerably, but it doesnt play a principal role for the SCS. Geopolitical process here is being directed by socio-cultural specifics of the space assimilation. Depending on specific qualities of the current period of the Russian socio-cultural space assimilation, Russian state may acquire essentially different forms.

It may exist as one unitary state, with only capital and hard policy of centralisation and there may be great number of states, with no centralisation and no unitary policy at all. All these are just external manifestations of the process of SCSs space socio-cultural conversion.

Transformations of such kind may correctly be understood only in general context of the Russian space evolution. It is especially important that existence - during certain intervals of the history - of a big number of states within Russian SCS doesnt really influence the state condition of its socio-cultural regions and enclaves.

This phenomenon has no connection with the state of their boundaries, too. Its only linked to forming a set of strictly definite types of regions and enclaves. Further step in a process of the Russian space self-organization is being made, and a certain form of a state - appropriate to the tasks of the period of evolution - emerges. In this respect, disintegration of the USSR and rise of 15 independent states and potential possibility of this geopolitical process further progress - revealing itself, for instance, in the transformation of Ukraine and some Central-Asian CIS republics Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in particular into new and numerous state formations - have almost nothing to do with evolution of socio-cultural regions and enclaves.

All these still remain the Russian SCSs space thats going now through the next stage of its evolution. It categorically isnt linked to a unitary state status only. Numerous regional conflicts are not the signs of the Russian states weakness and degradation, but of the Russian SCSs space subsequent socio-cultural transformation.

Fifth Suggested model of the territories socio-cultural assimilation within Russian SCS allows for well-grounded long-term prognosis of the geopolitical processes. Geopolitical dynamics are determined by the socio-cultural processes. Process of the Russian SCSs space self-organization is still going on, and the states evolution - rise of a new type of a state formations in particular - is a perfectly natural phenomenon.

These are the results of the studies conducted during 199199, partly jointly with Tatiana Nikolaenko. In practice, its a basis for creating the analytical system to support decision- making DSS, in geopolitical questions in particular. NOTES 1 Dmitry V. Nikolaenko. Zonation of the Russian socio-cultural system - In Tatiana V. Nikolaenko, Dmitry V. Nikolaenko. Problems of the Geography of Recreation New Crimea 1998 Special Issue II. in Russian 2 Dmitry V. Nikolaenko, Tatiana V. Nikolaenko. Russian Space Time Socio-Cultural Programs Culture of the Black Sea Region Nations 1998 N 2 p. 4 - 58 in Russian 3 Dmitry V. Nikolaenko.

Morphology of the Socio-Cultural Formations Culture of the Black Sea Region Nations 1998 N 2 p. 59 - 151 in Russian 4 Dmitry V. Nikolaenko. Theory of Socio-Cultural Systems Definitions, Typology, Time-Spatial Models Culture of the Black Sea Region Nations 1998 N 2 p. 152 - 239 in English 5 Dmitry V. Nikolaenko.

Socio-Cultural Worlds. Volume 1 Space-Time Dynamics of the Socio-Cultural Systems The Constants Social Studies Almanac 1998 Special Issue I 150 p. in Russian 6 Dmitry V. Nikolaenko. Socio-Cultural Worlds. Volume 2 Space-Time Dynamics of the External Buffer Zones The Constants Social Studies Almanac 1999 Special Issue II 405 p. in Russian 7 Dmitry V. Nikolaenko. Socio-Cultural Worlds The Constants Social Studies Almanac 1999 Special Issue III 420 p. in English.

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Социокультурные основы (фонда) жителя восточной Европы (english)

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