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B) THEORIES FOR THE BUSINESS CYCLE

B) THEORIES FOR THE BUSINESS CYCLE - раздел Образование, MONEY AND INCOME There Are Various Theories As To The Cause Of The Business Cycle. Internal (O...

There are various theories as to the cause of the business cycle. Internal (or endogenous) theories consider it to be self-generating, regular, and indefinitely repeating. A peak is reached when (or just before) people begin to consume less, for whatever reason. As far back as the mid-nineteenth century, it was suggested that the business cycle results from people infecting one another with optimistic or pessimistic expectations. When economic times are good or when people feel good about the future, they spend, and run up debts. If interest rates rise too high, people find themselves paying more than they planned on their mortgage or rent, and so have to consume less. If people are worried about the possibility of losing their jobs in the near future they tend to save more. A country's output, investment, unemployment, balance of payments, and so on, all depend on millions of decisions by consumers and industrialists on whether to spend, borrow or save.

Investment is closely linked to consumption, and only takes place when demand and output are growing. Consequently, as soon as demand stops growing at the same rate even at a very high level, investment will drop, probably leading to a downturn. Another theory is that sooner or later during every period of economic growth - when demand is strong, and prices can easily be put up, and profits are increasing - employees will begin to demand higher wages or salaries. As a result, employers will either reduce investment, or start to lay off workers, and a downswing will begin.

External (or exogenous) theories, on the contrary, look for causes outside economic activity: scientific advances, natural disasters, elections or political shocks, demographic changes, and so on. Joseph Schumpeter believed that the business cycle is caused by major technological inventions (the steam engine, railways, automobiles, electricity, microchips, and so on), which lead to periods of 'creative destruction! He suggested that there was a 56-year Kondratieff cycle, named after a Russian economist. A simpler theory is that, where there is no independent central bank, the business cycle is caused by governments beginning their periods of office with a couple of years of austerity programs followed by tax cuts and monetary expansion in the two years before the next election.

Ex. 1 Memorize the words.

at full capacity на полную мощность

behave вести себя, действовать (опред. образом)

behaviour образ действия, поведение, режим работы

cause причина; служить причиной, вызывать

counter противостоять, наносить встречный удар

contraction сокращение, сжатие

downturn (downswing) спад деловой активности (конъюнктуры)

duration длительность, продолжительность

employment занятость

expansion распространение, экспансия; рост

external внешний

fluctuate колебаться, меняться

forecast предсказывать, прогнозировать

intermediate промежуточный; посредник

internal внутренний

intervene вмешиваться

invention изобретение

lay off временно увольнять; приостановка

multiplier множитель, коэффициент

office (period of) период нахождения у власти, на посту

recognize осознавать, распознавать

recover выздоравливать, приходить в себя

surplus излишек; избыточный

trough самый низкий уровень экон. активности

turn поворачивать(ся); поворот, изменение

upturn (upswing) подъём, рост

variable переменная (величина); изменчивый

worry беспокоить(ся); тревога, забота

Ex. 2 Find pairs of synonyms in A and B.

A: business, output, depression, link, fall, contrary, lead to;

B: slump, opposite, result in, trade, drop, connect, production.

Ex. 3 Find pairs of antonyms in A and B.

A: permanent, boom, expand, at full capacity, peak, internal, result from;

B: contract, trough, variable, cause, external, recession, below potential.

 

Ex. 4 Insert the preposition (where necessary).

на полную мощность ….. full capacity

спрос на товары demand ….. goods

влезать в долги run ….. debts

на том же уровне ….. the same rate

назвать в честь кого-либо name ….. somebody

 

Ex. 5 Find the words in the text which mean the following.

1 beliefs about what will happen in the future

2 money borrowed in order to buy a house or flat (AE apartment)

3 money paid for the use of a house or flat owned by somebody else

4 the amount of something produced by a company, a country, etc.

5 spending on new machines, factories, and so on

6 owners or managers of manufacturing companies

7 spending on goods and services

8 to dismiss employees

9 concerning the number of births, deaths, population figures, etc.

10 an absence of luxury and comfort

Ex. 6 Match up the following half-sentences.

1 Companies may reduce investment or the size of the work force

2 Companies only invest

3 During a period of economic growth

4 External theories of the business cycle

5 Governments often stimulate the economy

6 Increases in interest rates

7 Internal theories of the business cycle

8 People can demand higher pay

9 People tend to spend less

A consumers borrow a lot of money.
B if labour costs increase too much.
C if their company's sales are increasing.
D include psychological factors.

E include technological and population changes.
F prior to general elections.
G result in higher rents and mortgages.

H when they are afraid of becoming unemployed.
I while consumption is increasing.

Ex. 7 Answer the following questions.

1. What is a boom? What is characteristic of it?

2. What is a recession? What is characteristic of it?

3. How are the highest and the lowest points of the cycle called?

4. How do internal theories explain the causes of the cycle?

5. How do external theories explain the causes of the cycle?

Ex. 8 Summarize the content of the text.

Ex. 9 Comment on the following.

1 Which of the various theories of the business cycle mentioned in the text do you find the most convincing?

2 What is the current economic situation in your country? Why?

3 Are the people you know optimistic or pessimistic about the future? Are they saving money for bad times ahead, or spending and borrowing without worrying too much about the future? Can you see anything coming that can make them change their behaviour?

– Конец работы –

Эта тема принадлежит разделу:

MONEY AND INCOME

MONEY AND INCOME Active Vocabulary bank account the sum of money credited to a depositor at... Reading I THE FUNCTIONS OF... Reading II EVOLUTION OF THE PAYMENT SYSTEM Commodity money When...

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Все темы данного раздела:

Active Vocabulary
General finance · bank account: the sum of money credited to a depositor at a bank · bank deposit: money that people and companies have in bank accounts · banknote

THE FUNCTIONS OF MONEY
Money has three functions in the economy. These three functions together distinguish money from other assets, such as stocks, bonds, real estate or works of art. Let’s examine each of these functio

EVOLUTION OF THE PAYMENT SYSTEM
We can get a better picture of the functions of money and the forms it has taken over time by looking at the evolution of the payments system, the method of conducting transactions in the economy.

ARE WE HEADING FOR A CASHLESS SOCIETY?
1. Predictions of a cashless society have been around for decades, but they have not come to fruition. For example, Business Week predicted in 1975 that electronic means of payment “would soon revo

Active Vocabulary
· amount: quantity of something · authorities: people or organizations that have the power to make decisions and control others · bond: a certificate issued by a governme

A Measuring money
What is the money supply? It’s the stock of money and the supply of new money. The currency– coins and notes that people spend makes up only a very small part of the money supply.

Ex. 2 Are these statements TRUE or FALSE? Find reasons in A and B.
1 Most money exists on paper, in bank accounts, rather than in notes and coins. 2 Banking customers can withdraw time deposits whenever they like. 3 The amount of money spent is t

MONETARY POLICY
Monetary policy is one of the main instruments of macroeconomics. It is based on the ability of the Central bank to control the money supply, which leads to changes in interest rates and the exchan

Discount Rate
The discount rate is the interest rate that the Central Bank charges when commercial banks want to borrow money. When inflation threatens, a discount rate increase dampens economic activity because

Cost-Push Theory
According to the cost-push theory, inflation occurs when producers raise prices in order to meet increased costs. Higher prices for raw materials can cause costs to increase. Wage increases, howeve

WHY EXCHANGE RATES CHANGE
1. An exchange rate is the price at which one currency can be exchanged for another (e.g. how many yen are needed to buy a euro). In theory, exchange rates should be at the level that gives purchas

Active Vocabulary
· base rate: the interest rate that banks use as a basis for lending money · blue chip: safe to invest into and profitable (securities and companies) · cash card: a plastic card i

A Current accounts
A current account is an account which allows customers to take out or withdraw money, with no restrictions. Money in the account does not usually earn a high rate of interest: the bank does not pay

B Banking products and services
Commercial banks offer loans - fixed sums of money that are lent for a fixed period (e.g. two years). They also offer overdrafts, which allow customers to overdraw an account - they can have a debt

CALLING ALL STUDENTS
ABC Bank offers 1% interest on (1) …………. and 2.5% on (2) ………. We will give you a chequebook and plastic: a free (3) ……………… for use in cash dispensers, and the possibility to apply for a (4

COMMERCIAL AND RETAIL BANKING
A Commercial and retail banks When people have more money than they need to spend, they may choose to save it. They deposit it in a bank accoun

C Loans and risks
Before lending money, a bank has to assess or calculate the risk involved. Generally, the greater the risk for the bank of not being repaid, the higher the interest rate they charge. Most retail ba

INTEREST RATES
A Interest rates and monetary policy An interest rate is the cost of borrowing money: the percentage of the amount of a loan paid by the borrow

B Different interest rates
The discount rate is the rate that the central bank sets to lend short-term funds to commercial banks. When this rate changes, the commercial banks change their own base rate, the rate they charge

WILL “CLICKS” DOMINATE “BRICKS”?
1. With the advent of virtual banks ("clicks") and the convenience they provide, a key question is whether they will become the primary form in which banks do their business, eliminating

Active Vocabulary
· buyout: the purchase of a controlling share in a company · bid: an offer to buy shares of a company in order to take control of it · dissolve: put an end (to an organization or

FORMS OF BUSINESS OWNERSHIP
Business is a commercial enterprise performing all those functions that govern the production, distribution, and sale of goods and services for the benefit of the buyer and the profit of the seller

A Mergers, takeovers and joint ventures
In the modern business world, the ownership of companies often changes. This can happen in different ways. · a merger: this is when two companies join together to form a new one

C Integration
Horizontal integration is when a company gets bigger by acquiring competitors in the same field of activity. Vertical integration is acquiring companies involved in other parts of the

A Conglomerates
A series or takeovers can result in a parent company controlling a number of subsidiaries: smaller companies that it owns. When the subsidiaries operate in many different business are

B Raiders
If corporate raiders - individuals or companies that want to take over other companies - borrow money to do so usually by issuing bonds, the takeover is called a leveraged buyout or

What Makes a Person an Entrepreneur?
1. Entrepreneurs come in all shapes and sizes. Some have become very wealthy and well known, such as Andrew Carnegie who built a successful steel company in the 1800s and Mary Kay Ash who founded M

Active Vocabulary
· bond: a certificate issued by a government or a company promising to repay borrowed money at a fixed rate of interest at a specified time · capital gain(s): a profit from the sale of pro

STOCKS AND SHARES 1
A Stocks, shares and equities Stocks and shares are certificates representing part ownership of a company. The people who own the

C Ordinary and preference shares
If a company has only one type of share these are ordinary shares. Some companies also have preference shares whose holders receive a fixed dividend (e.g. 5% of the shares' nom

STOCKS AND SHARES 2
A Buying and selling shares After newly issued shares have been sold (usually by investment bank's) for the first time - this is called the

SPECULATION
A Investors Stock markets are measured by stock indexes (or indices), such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in New York, and t

GOVERNMENT AND CORPORATE BONDS
1. Bonds are loans to local and national governments and to large companies. The holders of bonds generally receive fixed interest payments, once or twice a year, and get their money - known as the

Active Vocabulary
· additional: added to what is already present or available · consumption: process of buying and using products · direct tax: tax on income and profits, rather than on goods or se

Reading I
Ex.1Choose the proper heading for each paragraph. ......... Advantages and disadvantages of different tax systems ......... Avoiding tax on profits

TAX HAVENS EXPLAINED
What do the Bahamas, Bermuda, Panama, and Switzerland have in common? They are all "tax havens". Essentially, a tax haven is a place where foreigners may receive income or own assets with

MONEY LAUNDERING
The rise of global financial markets makes money laundering easier than ever - countries with bank-secrecy laws are directly connected to countries with bank-reporting laws, making it possible to a

THE EFFECTS OF MONEY LAUNDERING
1. The economic effects of money laundering are on a large scale. For example, in developing countries the governments are still in the process of establishing regulations for their newly privatize

Active Vocabulary
· accounts receivable: money owed to a company by its debtors · accounts payable: money owed by a company to its creditors · achieve: successfully finish or do something you wante

ASSETS AND LIABILITIES
The term "asset" means anything of value that is owned by a company and can be expressed in terms of money. Economic resources that provide a potential future service to the organization

BOOKKEEPING
The task of a bookkeeper is to ensure the record-keeping aspect of accounting and therefore to provide the data to which accounting principles are applied in the preparation of financial statements

ACCOUNTING INFORMATION
Accounting provides informational access to a company's financial condition for three broad interest groups. First, it gives the company's management the information to evaluate financial performan

THE BASIC STRATEGY OF A BANK IN MANAGING ITS ASSETS
1. To maximize its profits, a bank must simultaneously seek the highest returns possible on loans and securities, reduce risk, and make adequate provisions for liquidity by holding liquid assets. B

Active Vocabulary
· austerity: difficult economic conditions created by government measures to reduce public expenditure · benefits: money that is given by the government to people who cannot find a job, ar

A) THE BUSINESS CYCLE
The business cycle or trade cycle is a permanent feature of market economies: gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuates as booms and recessions succeed each other. During a boom, an economy (or at le

B Monetary Policy
Governments or central banks can also use monetary policy - changing interest rates and the level of the money supply - to influence the level of economic activity. They can boost or incre

Keynesianism
The great depression of the 1930s demonstrated that, at least in the short run, the market system does not automatically lead to full employment. In The General Theory of Employment, Interest an

Monetarism
In the 1950s and 1960s, monetarists, most notably Milton Friedman, began to argue that Keynesian fiscal policy has negative long-run effects. Unlike Keynesians, monetarists insisted that money is n

DEVIATIONS FROM CYCLE PATTERNS
1. Cycles consist of many elements. Historical fluctuations in economic activity cannot be explained entirely in terms of combinations of cycles and subcycles. There is always some factor left over

Active Vocabulary
· access: the right or opportunity to use or receive something · browse: look at information on the internet, go through webpages · brick-and-click : a business that operates over

MEANS OF COMMUNICATION AND ELECTRONIC OMMERCE
Connecting many computer networks and using common addressing system, the Internet has been growing rapidly since its creation in 1983. By the mid-1990s the Internet linked millions of computers th

A Elements of e-commerce
E-commerce or online shopping is the process of buying and selling products and services using the Internet. It has similarities with traditional commercial activity. A product or

C Types of e-businesses
Companies whose activity is centred on the Internet are called dotcoms, after their web addresses. However, most e-commerce businesses are bricks and clicks, as they have both a physical and

B Online banking services
What do you use online banking for? “I pay bills online. I've got a list in my computer with all my payment recipients' names and account details. When I have to pay, I select the a

C Online security
Most online banks have introduced the concept or two-factor authentication, the simultaneous use of at least two different devices or layers of security to prevent fraud. When you open

HURDLES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN RUSSIAN E-COMMERCE
1. Russia has a reputation of a difficult place for doing business, due to bureaucracy and corruption among other things. However, a lot of online businesses run by Russians and by foreigners succe

МНОГОФУНУЦИОНАЛЬНЫЕ ЭЛЕМЕНТЫ
Ø -er 1) при добавлении к глаголу образует существительное, обозначающее человека, выполняющего данное действие: teach – обучать teacher –

O П С Д О
Определение не имеет постоянного места в структуре предложения, оно обычно входит в состав смысловой группы определяемого слова и располагается справа или слева от него. Следует помнить, ч

Intinitive Перевод Past Simple Participle II
(что делать?) (прош. время) (пассив. причастие) arise возникать arose arisen bе быть was, were been bear нести bore borne become становиться bec

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