Social development at the boundary of millennia

Social development at the boundary of millennia. Under the conditions of the planetary crisis, that has emerged on the eve of the third millennium, the humanity is faced with the problem of globalization of transformational processes.

Beginning as the Great Depression of 1929-1934 in North-American and West-European countries, these processes received a new powerful impulse at the end of the XX century, by spreading their influence on the countries of the Central and Eastern Europe and a significant part of Asia. The new tendencies of social development and the problems of growth connected with them, actualized the research activity of representatives of social sciences.

For example, by the late 60s of the XX century, A. Peccei, a famous public figure in Italy, organized the Rome Club that initiated systematic researches of global problems. The first report of this club, called The limits of development, has become a futurological sensation. Presented by D. Medows in 1972, at the peak of Energetic crisis, this report pessimistically stated that social forms within which the economic growth is realized, do not lead to the overall welfare but sharpen social antagonisms and conflicts.

Demographic problems, unemployment, incomplete exploitation of social and economic potentialities of the society, deficit and irrational management of resources, inefficiency of various measures, inflation, lack of security and arms race, pollution of the environment, and the destruction of biosphere - all these tendencies of a new stage of development were considered in the reports of the Rome ClubOizerman T.I. Scientific-technical progress possibilities and limits of a forecast in Russian Sotsiol.

Issled 1999 No. 8 P. 9 No less pessimistic was Lindon LaroushsLaroush L. Memorandum Prospects of revival of Russias economy in Russian Moscow, 1995. forecast of the near future, related to the new wave of transformational processes in the former USSR. The globalization of threats may be the price paid by the humanity for its achievements. In the latter half of the XX century, the man landed on the Moon, which can be compared to the discovery of America by Columbus.

The technical-scientific revolution radically alters everyday life. The achievements of genetics put the man in one line with the Creator, though the man is hardly ready to that fact morally. The Internet is transforming our ideas of time and space. In the frameworks of new tendencies of social development, we observe the steady establishment of the liberal world economy system based on the principles of monetarism. At the same time against this self-intensifying background, the phenomenon of the so-called trophy economy is becoming remarkable, when the mechanism of overconsumption, not balanced with the adequate quantity of constructive production, is gaining strength under the conditions of moral corruption Neklessa A.I. End of civilization or conflict of history in Russian MEMO 1999 No.5 P. 76 The controversies of the industrial development remain actual.

A particular anxiety is brought up, in particular, by inevitable climatic changes caused by the extensive economic management and irreversible utilization of natural resources.

The demographic factor is still fraught with the potential threat to social development as of December 12, 1999, the world population has reached 6 billion people, having risen by 1 billion for as little as 12 yearsFrankfurten Allgemeine Zeitung 1999 12 oktober Since the Gulf War of 1990-1991, the conflicts for redistribution of resources natural, energetic, economic, cultural, and informational are again becoming the reality.

In the process of political, economic, and social changes, which are one of the manifestations of the essence of historical development, the new world policy is becoming more expansive. This fact is revealed by the recent events in Kosovo Yugoslavia that took place in 1999. The countries of the advance-guard of social development have reached the postindustrial stage of development by the end of the XX century, when human intellect and various forms of information are becoming the leading factors of the reproduction of economy.

The new postindustrial epoch has given birth to its own ideology - post-modernism. This term was introduced at the beginning of the 1980s by the French philosopher J F. Lyotard for the formalization of the phenomenon of skepticism relative to the rationalist tendencies of Enlightenment. The generic features of post-modernism are agnosticism, pragmatism, eclecticism, and anarchodemocratism Khoros V.G. Post-industrial world - hopes and fears to the statement of the problem in Russian MEMO 1999 No. 12 P. 112 post-modernism is the phenomenon of wide character, including all spheres of intellectual activity.

It is based on egalitarian tendencies, contraposed to any hierarchic constructionsTrofimova E.I. Stylistic reminiscences in the Russian post-modernism of the 1990s in Russian ONS 1999 No. 4 P. 170 The emergence of post-modernism on the horizon of social development stimulated the need in development of new paradigms, since post-modernism denies the very possibility of the social theory.

Particularly, it concerns the problem of forecasting the social development. The history is permanently demolishing prognostic scenarios, however it has its own logic. What was considered sane, was not historical, what was considered historical, was not saneOrtega y Gasset Kh. History as a system in Russian Vopr. Filos 1966 No. 6 P.102 This can be reproduced by the social theory, that, of course, does not give exhaustive knowledge of objective reality but allows us to distance ourselves from the absolute relativism.

The end of the millennium, the formal beginning of the new historical epoch, stimulates the imperative need of a substantially new paradigm of the social theory. The history, being the existence in action, always goes beyond the narrow frame of temporal conceptual constructions in reality and, at the same time, often denies socio-philosophical prognoses.

That is why, the revision of existing concepts and prognoses of social development offered before becomes actual. As known, futurological constructions are formed, as a rule, at a definite moment. With a change of the situation, rendering a substantial influence on the foreseen tendencies, the gap between the foreseen and the real is widening. That is why, the noncomprehension of a new social-political topology of the world becomes a source of faults and mistakes, a corollary of the absence of a future far-horizon projectActual problems of globalization in Russian MEMO 1999 No. 4 P. 40 In this context, significant is the discussion on the role of the social science in the contemporary world between former Presidents of the International Association of Sociologists I. Wallerstein and M. Archer.

Whereas Wallerstein poses a new global problem of highlighting the fact of the end of one epoch and the beginning of another one as well as various forms of the transition to the latter, M. Archer accentuates the fact that the social science cannot play the role of radical transformerRomanovsky N.V. Sociology and sociologists before global cataclysms in Russian Sotsiol.

Issled 1999 No. 3 P. 67 At the same time, the discussion of the correlation of Belief and Knowledge is becoming actual for the western science. There is no conflict between the religion and science in the East, since science is not based on the predilection to facts, and religion - only on the belief there exist the religious cognition and cognitive religion - states Carl-Gustav JungJung C G. On the psychology of east religions and philosophies in Russian Moscow, 1994 P. 99 We emphasize the point that the society goes through radical social transformations in the transitional phase of development - the reform of social structures, relations and correlations, hierarchy of factors, etc. which take an important part in the system of the reproduction of social life. The processes of transitional conditions of social systems are followed by a sharp weakening of the influence of cause-effect relations which form the basis of the rational method in science. From our point of view, the realization of this fact explains a drop in efficiency and, in some cases, unsoundness of both scientific rational knowledge and the method of solving the task of overcoming the social crisis.

Those are transitional periods the times of disturbance and crises when one can observe the growing importance of the traditional knowledge and practices backing on the intuition, popular orientations and methods, coming from ancient times, for solving vital tasks and for prognoses of the future.

It is obvious that the investigation of social development should be carried out on the principles of integration of the ancient and temporary, traditional and innovative knowledge and methods, which only together are able to give the adequate results under conditions of the transitional period of social development on the boundary of millennia.

The main scientific problem of the present research is the social development in the spatio-temporal continuum. As the object of our analysis, we take the life cycle of the society as a subject of the historical process.

We also shall investigate the genesis of societal processes, their characteristics and conditions. We note that the analogous trend in social philosophy gives no any distinctive criteria for the rational construction of a system of classification and periodization as integral elements of a scientifically grounded foresight.

In this connection, a new wave of the traditional discussion about progress is very significant. For example, A.Nazaratyan separates five through tendencies vectors of changes on sufficiently large temporal intervals 1 rise of technologic power 2 demographic growth 3 intellectual development 4 growth of organizational complexity 5 enhancement of tolerance. Such an approach to the progress is criticized by A. Korotaev.

He states that we do not know whether the humanity is approaching its apotheosis or abyssKorotaev A.V. Tendencies of social evolution in Russian Obshchest. Nauki Sovrem 1999 No. 4 P. 112 Indeed, the utilitarian ideal of progress formulated by Jeremy Bentham 1748-1832 is as follows the sum of individual profits gives the overall profit - the biggest happiness for the largest number of people History of political and legal doctrines in Russian Moscow, 1988 P. 366 But it still remains just a philosophical utopia for the largest part of the population over the world.

The theoretical constructions continue to be created at the corresponding levels of abstraction upon the analysis of objects of various scales. It is necessary to remove the contradiction between the forms of development on the basis of the formulated universal laws and all the variety of achievements of natural sciences. The question is the social science striving to become an exact science normative for the political sphere, especially in the context of social engineering.

The solution of this main task should promote the attainment of the main objective of this research - creation of a universal and, at the same time, applied model of epochal historical cycle as the unit of analysis and the means of prognostics at the level of the specific countries, regions, and civilizations. The research has a polydisciplinary character, which is related to the development of the main concept of cyclicity of social development in the historical context.

The expected results, which are of hypothetical character prior to a receipt of empiric data, may become a subject for further specific researches in the sphere of the sociology of history, social philosophy, politology, psychology, right, geopolicy, philology, etc. Thus, the contemporary macrosocial situation and the condition of theoretical developments stimulate the formation of a new research paradigm of the social science on the basis of integral societal indices.

Of course, unless the corresponding empirical information is received, the offered concept is a hypothesis. CHAPTER 2 Problem of historical- sociological reflection A historical-sociological conception is represented as a synthesis simultaneously containing the analysis of the most important tendencies of development of specific countries and regions, interpretation of the contemporary epoch, and forecast of long-term historical development.

As is well known, the history of sociological science includes similar theories. In the period of the transition from a traditional to industrial society, this problem was solved by the conceptions of O. Comte, E. Durkheim, and K Marx. A detailed characteristic of the industrial society was given by M WeberHistory of theoretical sociology in Russian In 4 Vols Moscow, 1997 and that of the post-industrial society by D. Bell, A. Toffler, and others.

We have already noted that, on the boundary of the third millennium, the global transformation stimulates changes in the spiritual sphere, and actual problems become sharper due to a greater nonpredictability of behaviour of subjects of the historical process. Similar social phenomena stimulate the necessity of harmonization of interdisciplinary scientific studies, new theoretical approaches, adequate methodologies for analysis and forecast which would be relevant to the historical challenge.

Since the history of sociological thoughts is a pure source of principal ideas of the sociology of history, we turn to the analysis of the state of scientific interpretation of the problem of social development. This problem can be solved by considering the main conceptions of social development in the historical context through the prism of problematic-chronological discourse, which allows one to show the self-identification of the main doctrines and a scientific-critical dialog between them. On the theoretical level, the basic contraversivity was already considered in the doctrines of O. Comte 1798-1857 and Ch. L. Montesquieu 1689-1775 . The latter, as distinct from O. Comte, did not trust in the idea of progressAron R. Stages of development of sociological thought in Russian Moscow, 1992 P. 76 At the same time, Ch. L. Montesquieu advanced a fruitful idea on the influence of geographical environment on the social development and definition of a historical situation.

Here, we can find the origin of geopolicy and geoeconomy which, in the period of globalization, render a growing effect on the historical situation not only in specific countries and regions but on development of the whole civilization.

As distinct from Ch. L. Montesquieu, O. Comte was a supporter of the idea of unity of the whole history of the mankind, because the single intention of the history consists in the progress of human intellectAron R. Stages of development of sociological thought in Russian Moscow, 1992 P.104 Therefore, sociology should be a system of positive knowledge on the society.

One of the moving forces of the history was a disorder of thinking at every individual historical stage. The process of development was described by O. Comte in terms of statics and dynamics. The last is characterized as a sequential change of the necessary stages of establishment of the human intellect and society for attainment of a static state, i.e social order. Therefore, progress is comprehended as a development of the rational in persons.

As for the progress of a society, O. Comte connected it with the evolution of social human consciousness, the sequential change of three dominating types of outlook 1 theological one, when the leading tendency of social development is the competitiveness between religious ideas and an originating scientific knowledge 2 metaphysical one, which characterizes speculative-philosophical consciousness 3 eventually at the highest stage, the scientific positive consciousness and positive style of thinking are established.

This is related with the well-known optimistic aphorism of O. Comte about the creative role of science To know in order to foresee, and to foresee in order to be able History of political and legal doctrines in Russian Moscow, 1988 P. 377 The positivistic tradition, beginning from O. Comte, is connected with ideas of social engineering, i.e a more or less conscious definition of the vector of social development.

The all-embracing conceptualization of the history was developed by Hegel who considered the historical process as that of establishment of the notion of freedom. The most characteristic doctrine during establishment of the evolutionary-materialistic approach to the history was that of K.Marx 1818-1883 . In the marxist conception, the history is considered as a progressive natural-historical process of variations in and change of social-historical formations.

This mechanism was formulated as follows Every social formation does not die until all productive forces, for which it presents a sufficient place, will have developed, and no new higher production relations appear until the material conditions for their existence in the midst of the very old society will have ripened Marx K. On the criticism of political economy in Ukrainian Marx K Engels F. Works Vol. 13 P. 7 Such an evolutionary approach became a theoretical foundation of the activity of social democracy.

On the other hand, we recall that Marx inferred in the work Lui Bonapartes brumaire, 18 all previous revolutions improved the state apparatus, but it should be broken for the sake of establishment of the dictatorship of proletariat. Class struggle is already represented as a moving force of the history. Such a revolutionary marxism became a practical guide to action in countries with outdated rhythm of industrialization. However, the appearance of the socialist system after the II World war, which included the USSR and its satellites, did not become the end of the pre-history. At the same time, the dogmatization of the social-philosophical theory of marxism dealed a fatal blow at it. On the other hand, the new phase in development of the industrial society, which was related with marginalization of the class structure where the proletariat formally represented a major part, has transformed the social structure of countries being in the advance-guard of the historical process.

The comprador capitalism in developing countries did not create a proletariat in the classical marxist sense of this term. Similar tendencies limited the creative potential of marxism, though impetuous events in the second half of the XX century for example, youth riots in the Western Europe in 1968 allowed one to say about neo-marxism for some timeAnderson P. Thoughts about the west Marxism in Russian Moscow, 1991 In the former USSR up to the period of perestroika 1985-1991 , the severe ideological control gave no possibility to freely develop even for a nonorthodoxal marxist thinking.

The flow of denunciatory literature did not allow one to separate cereals from weeds. In fact, neo-marxist theoretical investigations were terminated without any real start.

One of the last attempts was the book of S. Platonov, where the author comprehends the notion of communism and seeks for an answer to the rhetorical question about what can occur after communism.

He analyzes the development of the mankind from the pre-history, i.e the epoch of estrangement, through the epoch of destruction of private property, every of the production means of which is a stage of withdrawal of one of the layers of estrangement, to the epoch of positive humanism, a free association of universally developing individualsPlatonov S. After communism. The second advent. Talks in Russian Moscow, 1991 P. 52-53 The notion of historical process in the materialist tradition is based on the stadial interpretation of the human history as a unit global process of development and change of formations. In the marxist paradigm, there were yet no attempts to theoretically explain the contemporary social situation of breaking the soviet model of socialism.

This testifies to that marxism remains on pages of the history but on the periphery of an actual scientific discourse related with the positivistic solution of the problem of social engineering.

Comtes positivistic tradition was developed by the English sociologist and philosopher H. Spencer 1820-1903 who connected sociology with the idea of evolution. The basis of his conception was the analogy of state with biological organism. Similarly to a biostructure, a state has its own life circle birth, growth, ageing, and downfall. This idea was developed by O. SpenglerSpengler O. Decline of Europe in Russian Moscow, 1993 P. 623. who considered the historical fate of the European civilization and by L.N.Gumi-lev who analyzed ethnogenesisGumilev L.N. Ethnogenesis and biosphere of the Earth in Russian. Leningrad, 1989 P495 On the boundary of the XIX-XX centuries, a positivistic interpretation of social mechanisms was presented by E. Durkheim 1858-1917 . The main idea of his conception reduces to a search for social harmony under objective conditions of division of social labour.

As distinct from Marx who accented attention on the estrangement of a worker from results of his her work under conditions when division of labour is based on private interests, Durkheim considered this problem from the viewpoint of relations between the individual and group.

Since collectivistic societies are historically primary, the individual arises from the society but not the society from individuals. Social mechanisms are regulated by a search for the harmony of agreement. Moreover, organic solidarity is caused by labour divisionDurkheim E. Division of social labour in Russian Moscow, 1996 P. 119 From the methodological viewpoint, it is worth to note the approach of Durkheim to the definition of social roles.

The absolutization of rationalization and the linear progressive theory are opposed by the conception of W. Pareto 1848-1923 . Whereas O. Comte considered the evolution of the man, on the whole, as the motion from fetishism to positivism through the theological and metaphysical stages regardless of certain delays, these four images of thinking, according to Pareto, normally interact at various levels in all the time. For the whole mankind, there is no obligatory transition from one type of thinking to another in the form of a single and irreversible process, but there are transient oscillations, defined by societies and classes, relative to the influence of each of these means of thinkingAron R. Stages of development of sociological thought in Russian Moscow, 1992 P. 440 It follows that definite tasks related to the development of the society are solved at specific historical stages through a change of governing elites.

New elites are formed from lower strata, flourish, and then declineHistory of political and legal doctrines in Russian Moscow, 1988 P. 367 The idea of cyclicity becomes pivotal for the social theory.

The rationalistic conception of M. Weber 1864-1920 approaches the history and sociology not as two different disciplines but as a whole methodological system. In his study, the historian aspires to define a causal significance of various elements having created a unique conjuncture, but the sociologist tries to establish interconnections in their temporal sequence which were observed many times or can repeatWeber M. Sociology general historical analyses.

Policy in Ukrainian Kiev, 1998 On the boundary of the XXI century, the discourse of social-historical reflection remains open. CHAPTER 3