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Beyond Technical Analysis
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  1. Developing New Trading Systems 73
  2. Selected Bibliography 253 Index 255 About the Disk 261
  3. Introduction
  4. The Usual Disclaimer
  5. What Is a Trading System?
  6. Comparison: Discretionary versus Mechanical System Trader
  7. Discretionary Trader 100% Mechanical System Trader
  8. Why Should You Use a Trading System?
  9. Robust Trading Systems: TOPS COLA
  10. How Do You Implement a Trading System?
  11. Who Wins? Who Loses?
  12. Beyond Technical Analysis
  13. Introduction
  14. What Are Your Trading Beliefs?
  15. Six Cardinal Rules
  16. Rule 1: Positive Expectation
  17. Rule 2: A Small Number of Rules
  18. Days since 08/01/95
  19. More rules need more data
  20. Rule 3: Robust Trading Rules
  21. Number of rules
  22. Number of rules
  23. Delay ( of days) after crossover
  24. Here must be a Figure.
  25. Rule 4: Trading Multiple Contracts
  26. Rule 5: Risk Control, Money Management, and Portfolio Design
  27. Equity Curve: 3SF vs SF+TY+CT
  28. Time (months)
  29. Rule 6: Fully Mechanical System
  30. Summary
  31. Introduction
  32. Diagnosing Market Trends
  33. ADX Rising, RAVI Rising, Market (1/1/89-6/30/95) ADX>20 RAVI > 3
  34. To Follow the Trend or Not?
  35. Profits of age of Winner Loser tive Drawdown
  36. To Optimize or Not to Optimize?
  37. Length of Optimized 3 mo. 1990 6 mo. 1990 9 mo. 1990 12mo.1990 SMA Relative Relative Relative Relative Relative (days) Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank
  38. Initial Stop: Solution or Problem?
  39. Day CHBOC with varying initial stop
  40. Changes In MIDD for 20-day CHBOC on Coffee
  41. Changes In percent profitable trades, 20-day CHBOC on Coffee
  42. Cumulative frequency distribution average 10-day daily range in coffee
  43. Does Your Design Control Risks?
  44. Data! Handle with Care!
  45. Profit MIDD of Wins Win/Loss Data Type ($) ($) Trades (%) Ratio
  46. Choosing Orders for Entries and Exits
  47. Understanding Summary of Test Results
  48. British Pound 38/13-dally 02/13/75 - 7/10/95 Performance Summary: All Trades
  49. What the Performance Summary Does Not Show
  50. A Reality Check
  51. Introduction
  52. The Assumptions behind Trend-Following Systems
  53. The 65sma-3cc Trend-Following System
  54. Distribution of Trade P&L for 65sma-3cc: 2400 trades
  55. Comparing frequency distribution of 65sma-3cc trades to standard normal distribution
  56. Frequency distribution of 65sma-3cc trades compared to a modified normal distribution
  57. Maximum favorable excursion of 1,565 losing trades of 65sma-3cc system
  58. Cumulative Frequency of winning trades, 65sma-3cc system
  59. Effect of Initial Money Management Stop
  60. Number of trades Increases and levels off.
  61. Volatility-based initial money management stop
  62. Profit and MIDD for LH as a function of initial MMS
  63. Volatility-based initial MMS
  64. Adding Filter to the 65sma-3cc System
  65. Largest losing trade increases as MMS Increases
  66. Volatility based initial MMS for Sugar
  67. Adding Exit Rules to the 65sma-3cc System
  68. Channel Breakout-Pull Back Pattern
  69. An ADX Burst Trend-Seeking System
  70. A Trend-Antitrend Trading System
  71. Gold-Bond Intermarket System
  72. A Pattern for Bottom-Fishing
  73. Time: 4/82-7/95
  74. Identifying Extraordinary Opportunities

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